BlackRock Chases Yield While Luke Dashjr Proposes Bitcoin Hard Fork

Welcome to this week’s Roundup!

This week we’re covering 👇

• Treasury companies use technical analysis when Bitcoin itself is the simpler play

• Hard fork governance drama resurfaces but Bitcoin's track record speaks for itself

• BlackRock files yield product because self-custody doesn't generate fees

Let's jump in!

1️⃣ When Treasury CEOs Pitch Technical Analysis, Just Buy Bitcoin

Strive Asset Management CEO Matt Cole posted this week about there being lots of fear in Bitcoin and treasury company markets at the moment. He argued that current levels offer attractive entries based on three charts: dollar weakness ahead, MSTR/Bitcoin ratio at yearly lows, and Bitcoin holding a strong historical support level of $108k.

The problem? When a CEO uses technical analysis to convince you Bitcoin is well-positioned to outperform, ask yourself: why not just buy Bitcoin directly?

Cole's MSTR/Bitcoin ratio hitting yearly lows isn't a buy signal for their stock ($ASST); it's the market repricing leveraged exposure.

When Strive announced its digital asset treasury strategy in early May (green circle below) the stock ran aggressively. Ever since, its done nothing but make new lows (red circle below) - all while Bitcoin has held firm.

Treasury companies serve a purpose for leveraged exposure or regulatory constraints. But when the CEO tells you Bitcoin looks attractive, the logical response isn't "buy the treasury stock", but rather "buy BTC".

The misaligned incentives seem alarmingly clear. Treasury executives profit from managing Bitcoin on your behalf. You'd profit more from eliminating the middleman. If the thesis is Bitcoin appreciation, just focus on owning the underlying Bitcoin.

2️⃣ Hard Fork Drama Returns But Bitcoin's Track Record Suggests Immutability Wins

Leaked messages from Bitcoin Core contributor Luke Dashjr surfaced this week, allegedly discussing a hard fork to address illicit content concerns (aka “spam” on the blockchain). The controversy highlights Bitcoin's tension between immutability and real-world pressures, but history suggests these storms pass and Bitcoin will likely be just fine once this is all over.

The timing does matter though: Bitcoin Core v30 rolls out in October, increasing OP_RETURN data limits from 80 bytes to 4MB. Nick Szabo broke five years of silence to criticize the update, warning that node operators could face legal liability for storing illicit content while miners collect fees without bearing costs.

According to The Rage, Dashjr's texts discussed creating a multisig committee to retroactively alter blockchain data. The alleged quote "either Bitcoin dies or we have to trust someone" has sent shockwaves through the Bitcoin community.

Dashjr denied everything, calling the claims "fabricated nonsense” while other figures like Udi Wertheimer defended him and dissmissed the report as a "hit piece" with Luke’s messages being ‘taken out of context’.

Here's what matters for institutional allocators: Bitcoin has weathered governance controversies for 16 years. Block size wars, SegWit activation, ossification debates in 2023, and countless existential threats all resolved in favor of Bitcoin's founding principles. The network adapts, but immutability consistently wins.

For investors, this underscores Bitcoin's governance model: changes require overwhelming consensus, and contentious proposals typically fail. That's a feature, not a bug. We're still early, and governance drama will continue surfacing. But until consensus actually changes, this is noise.

3️⃣ BlackRock's Yield Product Reveals Why Self-Custody Wins

BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF this week, using covered call options on Bitcoin futures to generate additional yield. The product essentially caps your Bitcoin upside appreciation in exchange for current income distributions. Understanding why this exists reveals everything about tradfi’s approach to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's 30-day annualized volatility sits near multi-year lows around 35%. Covered call strategies work best when volatility is high and premiums are rich. Launching this now means selling cheap insurance during the largest coordinated monetary easing cycle since 2008.

The math tells the story. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) returned 17% year-to-date. A similar income fund (MAXI by Simplify asset management) returned only 12% despite a 43% trailing yield. You're giving up 5% price appreciation (17% less the 12%) for income that's relatively meaningless if Bitcoin continues appreciating long-term.

Why this is important? Yet again, we need to follow the incentives. BlackRock can't generate management fees if everyone simply self-custodies Bitcoin. Traditional finance only works when capital flows through intermediaries collecting fees. The boring solution of self custody and holding your own private keys eliminates their business model entirely.

This product exists because BlackRock needs to justify fees, not because Bitcoin investors need income during global monetary expansion. If you're buying Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement, why voluntarily cap your upside for 5-10% annual income?

🎯 The Final Word

This week's pattern: follow the incentives.

Treasury companies want you analyzing charts instead of owning Bitcoin directly. When a CEO says Bitcoin looks attractive, buy Bitcoin, not his stock. Hard forks sound scary, but Bitcoin's 16-year track record suggests immutability wins. We're still early, and this is noise until consensus actually changes.

Traditional finance products such as BlackRock's product exists because they can't make fees if you self-custody. Traditional finance needs intermediaries to collect fees. The boring solution wins by eliminating the middleman.

Institutions create complexity to justify fees. Smart capital cuts through it. Self-custody your Bitcoin, ignore governance drama until consensus changes, and skip leveraged vehicles when you can own the underlying asset directly.

P.S. The simplest strategy remains the best: buy Bitcoin, hold your own keys and tune out the noise.

Get started buying Bitcoin today with industry-low fees here (for iOS) or here (for Android).

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